(Reuters) -Most major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points across its November and December meetings, after the central bank announced an outsized 50 bps reduction earlier this month.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the cut a “recalibration” to account for the sharp decline in inflation since last year. He noted that the economy remained strong but the central bank wanted to stay ahead of and stave off any weakening in the job market.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the Fed’s decision:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
2024
Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA 125 2.75%-3.00%
Global Research
50 25
UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%
Management
Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%
Morgan Stanley 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Citigroup 50 25
J.P. Morgan 50 25
HSBC
100 3.25%-3.50% (through
25 25 (through June 2025)
June
2025)
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the Fed’s decision:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Sept Nov Dec
Goldman Sachs 25 25 25
BofA Global Research 25 25 25
UBS Global Wealth 50 25 25
Management
J.P.Morgan 50 50 25
Wells Fargo 50 50 25
Nomura 25 25 25
Deutsche Bank 25 25 25
Morgan Stanley 25 25 25
Citigroup 25 50 50
Wells Fargo 50 25 25
Investment Institute
Barclays 25 25 25
UBS Global Research 25 25 25
HSBC 25 25 25
Macquarie 25 25 25
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
